Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027
As of Oct 1, 2026, 3:52 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 94.2% (down from 94.7% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ209.7 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, at any point during the calendar year 2027 (from January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027), Robinhood actively offers event contracts or prediction markets on its official platform (including its mobile app or desktop interface). This market resolves to NO if Robinhood completely discontinues, shuts down, or formally pauses its prediction market/event contract off…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, at any point during the calendar year 2027 (from January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027), Robinhood actively offers event contracts or prediction markets on its official platform (including its mobile app or desktop interface). This market resolves to NO if Robinhood completely discontinues, shuts down, or formally pauses its prediction market/event contract offerings for the entirety of 2027. Clarifications and Edge Cases: Availability: The feature does not need to be available to all users or in all 50 states. If Robinhood restricts prediction markets to specific states, regions, or tier groups (such as Robinhood Gold subscribers), this still counts as "offering" prediction markets. Temporary Outages: Brief suspensions, technical downtime, or short-lived regulatory freezes (lasting less than 30 consecutive days) do not trigger a NO resolution, provided the feature is restored within 2027. Verification: Resolution will be verified using the official Robinhood Prediction Markets page, the Robinhood Help Center, or official press releases and reporting from reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters). Background Robinhood initially entered the prediction market space in March 2025 by launching its Prediction Markets Hub, subsequently expanding the service to include college and pro football contracts in August 2025. Operating through CFTC-regulated event contracts via Robinhood Derivatives, LLC (RHD), the feature allows retail traders to trade "Yes" or "No" positions on outcomes spanning sports, politics, economics, and entertainment. This market focuses on whether Robinhood will sustain this product line into 2027. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 4:05 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ209.7
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ3.7K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 94.2%
- 7-day range
- 94.2% – 94.7%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2027