Will one new couple who met at 2026 LO--->Vibecamp festival season have a healthy baby by the first day of August 2027
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if there is public or verified confirmation that at least one couple who met in person for the first time at either a LessOnline (LO) or Vibecamp event (including closely associated events held during the same late-spring/early-summer "festival season", such as Manifest or Lighthaven Summer Camp) has a live-born baby on or before August 1, 2027. Otherwise, the market re…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if there is public or verified confirmation that at least one couple who met in person for the first time at either a LessOnline (LO) or Vibecamp event (including closely associated events held during the same late-spring/early-summer "festival season", such as Manifest or Lighthaven Summer Camp) has a live-born baby on or before August 1, 2027. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. "Met at": The couple must have met in person for the first time at one of these events. "Healthy baby": Defined as a live birth with no extremely severe birth defects(downs,hydroencephalus, etc). Verification: Public announcements on Twitter/X, LessWrong, the Vibecamp Discord, or direct confirmation from prominent event organizers (e.g., Brooke Vance / @gptbrooke) will serve as the source of truth. Background LessOnline and Vibecamp are prominent annual gatherings for the rationalist, post-rationalist, and "This Part of Twitter" (TPOT) communities. Held primarily in late spring and early summer alongside events like Manifest, this "festival season" has fostered a highly connected offline social network, already resulting in several marriages. This market tracks the demographics of this cohort leading up to June 2027. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJuly 31, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 10, 5:40 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.