ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noiseUpdated 4m ago

Will NOAA SWPC issue a G4 (Severe) or stronger geomagnetic storm alert before November 10, 2026?

As of Oct 26, 2026, 11:52 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 37.6% (up from 19.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 121.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability

37.6%

+18.6 percentage points

over 24 hours19.0% → 37.6%

Moving fastBig move, weak backingEnds Nov 9, 2026 · 13 days

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

121.3 mana

Total volume

140.7 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Broad participation

18%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

Trades

over 17 days

Largest order

11.3 mana

140.7 mana traded across these 27 trades (last 17 days).

Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.

Recent trade activity$140.7 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves YES if NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issues an ALERT for a Geomagnetic K-index of 8 or 9 (a G4 "Severe" or G5 "Extreme" geomagnetic storm) whose "Threshold Reached" time falls between this market's creation and November 9, 2026 23:59 UTC. Otherwise NO. What counts: only an ALERT that the threshold was actually reached. SWPC message codes ALTK08 (K-index of 8) or ALTK09 (K-index of 9). WATCHES (predicted storms, e.g. "G4 Watch") and WARNINGS (K-index of 8 expected) do NOT count. They are forecasts, not observations. Source of truth: SWPC's alert feed, https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts.json , and the SWPC alerts archive at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings . If the live feed has rolled over, SWPC's archived alert messages are used. GFZ Potsdam's definitive Kp is NOT the resolver (it sometimes disagrees with SWPC's real-time estimate by a third of a step); this market is about the SWPC alert. Context (as of Oct 10, 2026): GFZ Potsdam's definitive Kp record (Kp of 8- or higher, https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_since_1932.txt) shows G4-level storm episodes in 2024 (5), 2025 (4) and so far in 2026 (1, January 19). An M6.7 flare on Oct 8 from an Earth-facing region came with a Type II radio burst, and SWPC's 3-day forecast expects several CMEs arriving Oct 10-12 with storming forecast up to G2. Solar Cycle 25 is past its peak but still active, and the weeks around the equinox historically get more storms. I (the creator) will not trade on this market.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 18.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (19.0% → 37.6%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

The market's deadline arrivesNovember 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 11:56 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence

Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Probability moved 18.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability

Reliability score

0Low

Where the price path tends to go next461 observed

Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityLow· half-life ~3h

PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+18.024H+18.67D+18.6

Will NOAA SWPC issue a G4 (Severe) or stronger geomagnetic storm alert before November 10, 2026?

How credible was the move?

Move validity

Consensus stability

Contract clarity

Can you trust this price?

Market capacity

Who's trading

What this market actually measures

Why the odds moved

What could move this market next?

What's happening

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