Will Nebraska Initiative Measure 442 (sex-based school sports teams) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Nebraska Initiative Measure 442 (Fairness for Girls: Shall the Nebraska Constitution be amended to provide: (1) Schools must expressly designate each athletic team or sport as one of the following based on biological sex: (a) Males, men, or boys; (b) females, women, or girls; or (c) coed or mixed; and (2) Athletic teams or sports designated for females, women, or girls shall not be open to students of the male sex?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the measure AND 'For' votes >= 35% of total votes cast at the election (Neb. Const. art. III, sec. 4) 35% rule: even with a majority, 'For' votes must equal at least 35% of all voters casting ballots in the Nov 3 election (e.g., 100 voters -> at least 35 'For') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: A vote 'FOR' will amend the Nebraska Constitution to require sex-based team designations and close female teams to students of the male sex, at public schools/colleges and private schools that compete against them. NO: A vote 'AGAINST' means the Nebraska Constitution will not be amended in this manner. Results: resolves on the result certified by Nebraska State Canvassing Board (Governor, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Secretary of State). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/default/files/doc/elections/2026/2026%20Ballot%20Measures%20Pamphlet.pdf