Will Nebraska Initiative Measure 440 (online sports betting amendment) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Nebraska Initiative Measure 440 (Online Sports Wagering Authorization: Shall the Nebraska Constitution be amended to authorize the enactment of laws allowing persons located within Nebraska to place sports wagers through an Internet-based platform when offered by an authorized gaming operator conducting games of chance within a licensed racetrack enclosure in Nebraska?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the measure AND 'For' votes >= 35% of total votes cast at the election (Neb. Const. art. III, sec. 4) 35% rule: even with a majority, 'For' votes must equal at least 35% of all voters casting ballots in the Nov 3 election (e.g., 100 voters -> at least 35 'For') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: A vote 'FOR' will amend the Nebraska Constitution to authorize laws allowing persons located within Nebraska to place sports wagers through an Internet-based platform offered by an authorized racetrack gaming operator. NO: A vote 'AGAINST' means the Nebraska Constitution will not be amended in this manner. Results: resolves on the result certified by Nebraska State Canvassing Board (Governor, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Secretary of State). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/default/files/doc/elections/2026/2026%20Ballot%20Measures%20Pamphlet.pdf