Will Nebraska Initiative Measure 441 (online sports betting statute) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Nebraska Initiative Measure 441 (Online Sports Wagering Regulation: Shall statutes be enacted that: (1) Allow persons located within Nebraska to place sports wagers through an Internet-based platform when offered by an authorized gaming operator conducting games of chance within a licensed racetrack enclosure in Nebraska or the operator's platform provider; and (2) Regulate such sports wagers?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the measure AND 'For' votes >= 35% of total votes cast at the election (Neb. Const. art. III, sec. 4) 35% rule: even with a majority, 'For' votes must equal at least 35% of all voters casting ballots in the Nov 3 election (e.g., 100 voters -> at least 35 'For') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: A vote 'FOR' will enact statutes allowing persons in Nebraska to place sports wagers through an Internet-based platform offered by an authorized racetrack gaming operator or its platform provider, and regulating such wagers. NO: A vote 'AGAINST' means no such statutes will be enacted. Results: resolves on the result certified by Nebraska State Canvassing Board (Governor, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Secretary of State). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/default/files/doc/elections/2026/2026%20Ballot%20Measures%20Pamphlet.pdf