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Currently 26% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 24/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Mykhailo Fedorov is officially sworn in and inaugurated as the next President of Ukraine, succeeding the current president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This market will resolve to NO if any other individual is officially sworn in and inaugurated as the next President of Ukraine, succeeding Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Acting/Temporary Presidents: An individual serving in an interim or acting presidential capacity (such as the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada assuming duties under Article 112 of the Constitution) will not trigger a resolution. The market will remain open until a permanent President is officially inaugurated. Zelenskyy Re-election: If Volodymyr Zelenskyy is re-elected or continues his tenure into a consecutive term without interruption, the market will remain open until a different individual is inaugurated as President. Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Central Election Commission of Ukraine or consensus reporting from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press). Background Mykhailo Fedorov is a prominent Ukrainian politician who gained widespread recognition as the Minister of Digital Transformation, where he led the modernization of Ukraine's digital infrastructure and wartime drone programs. In January 2026, he was appointed Minister of Defence. Following clashes with military leadership, Fedorov was dismissed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2026. The dismissal triggered public protests and has fueled speculation regarding Fedorov's future political trajectory and potential presidential ambitions. Presidential elections in Ukraine, originally scheduled for 2024, remain postponed under wartime martial law.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
MISSING_DATALimited dataLOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketWeakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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