Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
30.9 mana
Total volume
131.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
EPL: Will Manchester United beat Leeds United?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 11:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 36.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 30.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
36.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soonNot live — snapshot Oct 11, 11:25 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
31%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
10
over 2 days
Largest order
17 mana
54 mana traded across these 10 trades (last 2 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$54 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Manchester United defeats Leeds United in their upcoming Premier League match, originally scheduled for Sunday, October 18, 2026. This market will resolve to NO if Leeds United wins the match, or if the match ends in a draw.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Manchester United defeats Leeds United in their upcoming Premier League match, originally scheduled for Sunday, October 18, 2026. This market will resolve to NO if Leeds United wins the match, or if the match ends in a draw. Resolution is determined by the official result at the end of normal play (90 minutes plus stoppage time). If the match is postponed or rescheduled, this market will remain open and resolve based on the first competitive match played between the two clubs during the 2026/27 season. The primary source for resolving this market will be the official Premier League Website. Background Manchester United and Leeds United share a historic and intense rivalry. The two clubs meet at Elland Road on Sunday, October 18, 2026, during Matchweek 7 of the 2026/27 Premier League campaign. In the prior 2025/26 Premier League season, Leeds finished 14th following their promotion, while Manchester United finished in 3rd place. In their last official Premier League encounter at Old Trafford in April 2026, Leeds United pulled off a 2-1 victory over Manchester United. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeOctober 18, 2026 at 8:57 AM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 12:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next1174 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
30.9 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
131.4 mana
- Category
- Other
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 36.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 18, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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