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The probability is essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.
Will July 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? The current Manifold probability is 43.6%, essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as Stable with medium confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Kalshi prices this same question at 8% vs Manifold at 44%. That is a meaningful gap — when venues disagree, treat any single number with caution rather than as a settled probability.
Compare on Kalshi →This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for July 2026 reports that headline CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Use the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), BLS series CUSR0000SA0, and the seasonally adjusted percent change from June 2026 to July 2026 in the first BLS July 2026 CPI release. Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower. Do not use core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, not-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 CPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the July 2026 figure unless there is no BLS July 2026 CPI release by August 19, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"core_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.2, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.5, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_yoy": 4.2, "note": "June 2026 CPI is scheduled for 2026-07-14 and had not yet been released at this market's creation time.", "release": "Consumer Price Index, May 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U percent change from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 CPI markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July 2026 duplicates.", "Core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE inflation, PPI, and real-earnings markets are not duplicates.", "Calendar-year inflation markets are not duplicates of a single-month headline CPI-U MoM threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS CPI schedule lists July 2026 CPI for 2026-08-12 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for July 2026", "series": "CUSR0000SA0", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS schedule pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 or time out from raw Python requests on this host.", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS CPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - BLS August 2026 schedule list: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/08_sched_list.htm - BLS current CPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - BLS CPI home: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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