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ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 13m ago

Will Jujutsu Kaisen chapters 223–236 get a theatrical release by EOY 2029?

Market probability
50.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
1196 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2029 at 6:59 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

This market asks whether material from Jujutsu Kaisen manga chapters 223–236, which contain the Gojo vs. Sukuna fight, will receive a substantial official theatrical presentation.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market asks whether material from Jujutsu Kaisen manga chapters 223–236, which contain the Gojo vs. Sukuna fight, will receive a substantial official theatrical presentation. The market resolves YES if, by the end of December 31, 2030: An official animated Jujutsu Kaisen presentation containing at least 60 seconds total of narrative footage depicting the Gojo vs. Sukuna battle from chapters 223–236 is commercially screened in at least 10 cinemas/theatres; and Those screenings are publicly available to ordinary ticket-buying audiences. The animation does not need to have been created specifically for a movie. A theatrical compilation of previously broadcast episodes, episodes combined into a theatrical presentation, or an advance theatrical presentation of episodes will count, provided the conditions above are met. The theatrical release may occur before, simultaneously with, or after the material is released through television or streaming. The 60-second requirement refers to footage contained in the main theatrical presentation. Trailers, advertisements, promotional reels, openings/endings, or other material shown before or after the main presentation do not count toward this threshold. Premieres, private cast/crew or industry screenings, film-festival screenings, convention screenings, and other screenings that are not ordinary public theatrical exhibition do not count toward the 10-theatre threshold. The release does not need to occur internationally. A qualifying theatrical release entirely within one country, including Japan, is sufficient. If no qualifying theatrical release has occurred by the end of December 31, 2029, this market resolves NO. Official announcements from the Jujutsu Kaisen production committee, MAPPA, distributors, cinemas, or other relevant rights holders will be preferred as resolution sources. Credible reporting and statements from credited production staff may also be used where necessary.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2029 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 22, 6:57 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next831 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ0

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
50.0%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2029
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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