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Home/Macro / Fed/Will Jose Luis Ricon, Taylor Swift, and Katy Perry all STAR in a 3+ minute music video by EOY2035?
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 11m ago

Market prices a 45.2% chance of “Will Jose Luis Ricon, Taylor Swift, and Katy Perry all STAR in a 3+ minute music video by EOY2035” — down 4.8 points in 24 hours

Original Manifold title: “Will Jose Luis Ricon, Taylor Swift, and Katy Perry all STAR in a 3+ minute music video by EOY2035?”

Market probability
45.2%
−4.8 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% → 45.2%
3431 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2035 at 6:59 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

Medium

Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.

Recent trade activity$10 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 4.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 45.2%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2035 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 9, 2:27 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ10

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ10

Category
Macro / Fed
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-4.87D-4.8
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

2/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement35

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity37
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • One participant drove 100% of recent flow
  • Move not broadly confirmed (1 participants)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
3Low
Where the price path tends to go next779 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~7h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
45.2%
7-day range
45.2% – 50.0%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2035

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

2/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+31
  • Price steadiness+20
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
Trust score2 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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