Will IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?

This market resolves YES if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 15 for any date from 2026-08-15 through 2026-10-15 inclusive. Otherwise NO. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships — i.e. the n_total field. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are not considered. Resolution source (named, public, machine-readable): IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data for portid='chokepoint6', as published in the PortWatch dashboard and its downloadable / ArcGIS feed: https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portid%3D%27chokepoint6%27&outFields=date,n_total&orderByFields=date%20DESC&resultRecordCount=30&f=json The 7-day moving average is the mean of n_total over the stated date and the six preceding days. PortWatch data lags roughly 5 days; this market resolves once data covering 2026-10-15 has been published (expected ~Oct 20). If no data covering 2026-10-15 has been published within 14 calendar days after Oct 15, the market resolves on data published up to that point. Revisions published before resolution count, and do not disqualify an already-qualifying value. Why this bar. Three existing Manifold/Polymarket rungs ask whether Hormuz traffic returns to normal (a 7dMA of 60) by Dec 31, Jan 31, and Feb 28. Nothing asks about partial relief. Since the mid-March collapse, the 7dMA has been at or above 60 on zero of 148 days — but it did clear 15 during exactly one episode, 2026-06-24 through 2026-07-09, peaking at 26.71 on Jun 30 during the June US–Iran MoU. As of the latest published date (Aug 9) it sits at 4.43. So this asks the live question the 60-bar rungs can't: does the strait get one more window of meaningful relief in the next two months, or does the blockade simply hold?