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Currently 28% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 43/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before August 28, 2028, at 11:59 PM UTC, at least one user referred to Manifold Markets by the market creator has created 100 or more public questions. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Definitions & Rules: A referred user is defined as anyone who signed up for Manifold Markets using the creator's referral link, or is otherwise verified by the creator or Manifold database as having been referred by the creator. The count of created questions will be determined by the number of public markets shown under the "Created" tab on the referred user's Manifold profile. Background This market tracks the onboarding and long-term engagement of new users to Manifold Markets. Rather than just tracking sign-ups, this market requires the creator to refer at least one highly active user who becomes a prolific creator themselves, reaching the milestone of 100 created questions before the deadline in 2028. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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