Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?71%25.0US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?69%34.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?99%19.3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?26%10.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?82%27.0US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?75%27.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?46%33.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?89%21.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?24%18.9Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?98%5.7Israel closes its airspace by August 15?10%11.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?57%10.0Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?96%18.9Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?20%5.0Iran full airspace closure by August 31?20%15.5Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?90%7.0

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Will I bring someone onto Manifold Markets who creates 100 questions by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)? — 27.6% odds | ProbCast