Will England become a US state before 2045?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves as YES if England, or a successor political entity consisting substantially of the territory of England, is formally admitted to the United States as a U.S. state with an effective date before January 1st 2045.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves as YES if England, or a successor political entity consisting substantially of the territory of England, is formally admitted to the United States as a U.S. state with an effective date before January 1st 2045. Resolution will be based on official legal recognition by the United States, such as an Act of Congress admitting England as a state, and the admission must have legally taken effect before the deadline. Resolves as NO if England has not become a U.S. state before January 1st 2045, including if it only becomes a U.S. territory, protectorate, commonwealth, associated state, military-administered region, or otherwise falls under U.S. influence without full U.S. statehood. If the entire United Kingdom, Great Britain, or another larger entity containing England is admitted as a single U.S. state, this market resolves YES only if England is included in that state at the time of admission.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2044 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 16, 1:55 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ688.6