Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
150 mana
Total volume
2.3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 6:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 18.8% (down from 21.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 150 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
18.8%
−2.4 percentage points
over 24 hours21.2% → 18.8%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
41%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
16
Trades
46
over 56 days
Largest order
500 mana
1.8K mana traded across these 46 trades (last 56 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.8K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if legislation signed into law by a governor (or passed via veto override) institutes an official temporary freeze or halt on approving/permitting new data centers (or data centers exceeding a specific megawatt threshold) statewide. Resolves NO if no such statewide measure is enacted into law before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if legislation signed into law by a governor (or passed via veto override) institutes an official temporary freeze or halt on approving/permitting new data centers (or data centers exceeding a specific megawatt threshold) statewide. Resolves NO if no such statewide measure is enacted into law before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Local/county-level moratoria or non-binding legislative study task forces do not qualify. The measure must be enacted after August 16th 2026 and before December 31st 2026
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 6:31 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
23Low
Where the price path tends to go next1009 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~36h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
150 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
2.3K mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 18.8%
- 7-day range
- 18.8% – 21.2%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H-2.424H-2.47D-2.4
Related markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
45%YESTrust 72
Polymarket$51.6K 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$264.7K 24h
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
64%YESTrust 68
Polymarket$43.6K 24h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
91%YESTrust 93
Polymarket$231.5K 24h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10%YESTrust 91
Polymarket$87K 24h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
28%YESTrust 86
Polymarket$113.8K 24h