Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
2.4K mana
Total volume
0 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Democrats win the Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Election?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 2:28 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 40.0% (down from 47.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 2.4K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
40.0%
−7.3 percentage points
over 24 hours47.3% → 40.0%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
54%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
23
over 41 days
Largest order
1K mana
1.9K mana traded across these 23 trades (last 41 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.9K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
2026 Texas Commissioner of Agriculture election - Wikipedia [link preview](Identical market to: source market)
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
2026 Texas Commissioner of Agriculture election - Wikipedia [link preview](Identical market to: source market)
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 7.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (47.3% → 40.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 2:35 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next1124 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~11h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
2.4K mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
0 mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 40.0%
- 7-day range
- 40.0% – 47.3%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H-2.824H-7.37D-7.3
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