Will Colorado Amendment 86 (off-cycle congressional redistricting limits) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Colorado Amendment 86 (Congressional Redistricting) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: 55% of votes cast on the measure (Colo. Const. art. V §1(4)(b)); SOS: 'Requires 55% approval because it adds language to the state constitution'; Blue Book: 'Passes with 55 percent of the vote' Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Commission (and Supreme Court) must approve any congressional map change outside a scheduled redistricting year (Blue Book). NO: Continues the current every-ten-years congressional redistricting requirements (Blue Book). Results: resolves on the result certified by Colorado Secretary of State (official statewide canvass); takes effect on Governor's proclamation. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://leg.colorado.gov/ballots/requirements-for-off-cycle-congressional-redistricting-2/files/blue-book