ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noiseUpdated 7m ago

Will Colorado Amendment 85 (plain-language ballot titles) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

As of Oct 18, 2026, 9:00 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 68.0% (down from 72.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 61.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
68.0%
−4.5 percentage points
over 24 hours72.5% → 68.0%
Big move, weak backing

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

61.1 mana

Total volume

67.1 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

1

Trades

6

over 4 min

Largest order

1 mana

6 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 4 min).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$6 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if Colorado Amendment 85 (Plain Language Ballot Questions) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: 55% of votes cast on the measure (Colo. Const.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if Colorado Amendment 85 (Plain Language Ballot Questions) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: 55% of votes cast on the measure (Colo. Const. art. V §1(4)(b)); SOS: 'Requires 55% approval because it adds language to the state constitution'; Blue Book: 'Passes with 55 percent of the vote' Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Ballot titles must be plain language at an eighth-grade level; laws may not interfere (Blue Book). NO: Keeps current plain-language requirement without a specific reading-level standard (Blue Book). Results: resolves on the result certified by Colorado Secretary of State (official statewide canvass); takes effect on Governor's proclamation. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://leg.colorado.gov/ballots/plain-language-ballot-titles-2/files/blue-book

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 4.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (72.5% → 68.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 9:07 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

  • One participant drove 100% of recent flow
  • Move not broadly confirmed (1 participants)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
27Low
Where the price path tends to go next591 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~14h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-4.524H-4.57D-4.5

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