Will China restrict exports of high-strength titanium alloy on December 31, 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 7:20 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 87.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity.
Data is not live — latest snapshot Oct 4, 7:20 AM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement covering titanium alloy tube or solid cylindrical bar with tensile strength at least 900 MPa at 20 C and outside diameter above 75 mm under item 1C202.b. Resolves NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement covering titanium alloy tube or solid cylindrical bar with tensile strength at least 900 MPa at 20 C and outside diameter above 75 mm under item 1C202.b. Resolves NO otherwise. Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 30, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 10:06 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Low liquidity score (36)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ104
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 87.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 30, 2026