Will any US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers before 2027?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 58.7%.
- Final market price
- 58.7%
- Event deadline
- August 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will any US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers before 2027? The final Manifold price was 58.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 58.7%.
- Market data as of
- August 11, 2026 at 1:43 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- August 11, 2026 at 1:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 1m ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if: Before January 1, 2027, any U.S. state imposes a legally binding, statewide moratorium or pause — lasting at least 3 months or indefinite — on either (a) permitting/approval of new hyperscale or AI data centers, or (b) new large-load data center interconnections to the electric grid.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if: Before January 1, 2027, any U.S. state imposes a legally binding, statewide moratorium or pause — lasting at least 3 months or indefinite — on either (a) permitting/approval of new hyperscale or AI data centers, or (b) new large-load data center interconnections to the electric grid. Terms: • Qualifying instruments: state statute (signed into law), governor’s executive order, or a binding public utility commission order applying to all major investor-owned utilities in the state. • “Statewide” = applies across the state or to substantially all new hyperscale development in it. County/municipal moratoria do NOT count regardless of how many exist. • Carve-outs (e.g., exempting projects already permitted, or facilities under some MW threshold) are fine as long as the pause covers the bulk of prospective new hyperscale capacity. • Does NOT count: suspension of tax incentives alone, study commissions without a binding pause, voluntary utility pauses on connection requests, or bills passed by one chamber. • Effective date can be in 2027; enactment/issuance must occur in 2026.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ40
Liquidity
Ṁ100