Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 6:12 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 33.3% (up from 30.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ200 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ6K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Codename: TAKEOFF Resolves YES if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 receives an official general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score of 200 or higher. The model must be released before the deadline, but Epoch may score it afterward.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Codename: TAKEOFF Resolves YES if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 receives an official general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score of 200 or higher. The model must be released before the deadline, but Epoch may score it afterward. The central general-ECI value in Epoch’s canonical score file controls—not confidence bounds or domain-specific scores. If Epoch changes its scale or stops publishing useful scores, MNX will use its published conversion or the closest credible reconstruction of the same threshold. Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 3.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (30.0% → 33.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 6:21 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting90%
- Stable consensus5%
- Thin-liquidity spike3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ200
Liquidity
Ṁ6K
Total volume
Ṁ5.5K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 33.3%
- 7-day range
- 30.0% – 33.3%
- Resolves
- Jan 1, 2028