Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves to YES if, between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially releases a new, distinct model line that does not belong to any of the following four existing categories: Claude Haiku Claude Sonnet Claude Opus Claude Fable An "officially released model line" is defined as a model announced via Anthropic's official communication channels (such as the Anthropic …
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves to YES if, between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially releases a new, distinct model line that does not belong to any of the following four existing categories: Claude Haiku Claude Sonnet Claude Opus Claude Fable An "officially released model line" is defined as a model announced via Anthropic's official communication channels (such as the Anthropic News Page or official developer documentation) featuring entirely new branding or tier classifications distinct from the four categories listed above. Clarifications and Edge Cases: Incremental Updates: Upgrades or iteration versions to existing lines (e.g., "Claude Fable 5.1", "Claude Opus 6", "Claude Sonnet 5.1") will not trigger a YES resolution. Specialized Modalities: If Anthropic releases a standalone model dedicated solely to text-to-speech, speech-to-text, or image generation under a brand name not belonging to the four categories above, it will trigger a YES resolution. To count as a official model, it MUST be in the Anthropic API or be accessible to the public. A model counts as accessible to the public if the majority of Americans are able to use the model through a (free or paid) plan or the official Anthropic API endpoint (https://api.anthropic.com). Other Classifications: Any model released under a different brand or tier name (such as "Mythos" or any other novel classification) that is not explicitly named Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, or Fable will trigger a YES resolution. If no such qualifying new model line is officially released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve to NO. Background As of mid-2026, Anthropic's portfolio is organized around four primary model tiers targeting different balances of speed, cost, and reasoning capability: Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, and the recently launched Fable (a "Mythos-class" model line introduced in June 2026). This market tracks whether Anthropic will expand beyond these four established product lines with an entirely new tier before the end of the year. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output. Update 2026-08-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A rename of an existing model does not count towards a YES resolution if Anthropic officially states it is a rename rather than a new model. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 12, 6:42 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.