Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 12, 2:39 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human". In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI. Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours. Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test. Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade. ((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently! I created this Manifold market almost a year before ChatGPT launched.) Resolution Criteria However Kurzweil and Kapor and Longbets agree to resolve the wager is how this market resolves. Related Markets The inaugural Longbets.org bet Metaculus's version and Manifold mirror of Metaculus's version Manifold numerical market for a full probability distribution on the year AGI appears (Also I had a real-money version on biatob.com for anyone confident that Kurzweil's side has a good chance, but the link keeps breaking) (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2030 at 2:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 12, 3:03 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity