Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
102 mana
Total volume
752 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
China Top: Chinese lab #1 on ECI before 2028?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 6:18 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 14.4% (up from 11.8% 24 hours earlier). It had 102 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
14.4%
+2.6 percentage points
over 24 hours11.8% → 14.4%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
66%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
6
over 65 days
Largest order
500 mana
752 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 65 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$752 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Codename: CNTOP Resolves YES if a model from an AI developer headquartered in China, including Hong Kong or Macau, was released before January 1, 2028 and holds the #1 general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score at any moment. Even briefly holding first place counts.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Codename: CNTOP Resolves YES if a model from an AI developer headquartered in China, including Hong Kong or Macau, was released before January 1, 2028 and holds the #1 general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score at any moment. Even briefly holding first place counts. Epoch’s displayed central general-ECI estimates control; confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not. The qualifying score must appear by April 30, 2028. If Epoch disappears, MNX will use the closest credible successor ranking. Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 6:30 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 66% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (6 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next1249 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~22h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
102 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
752 mana
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 14.4%
- 7-day range
- 11.8% – 14.4%
- Resolves
- Jan 1, 2028
Change (pts)1H0.06H+2.624H+2.67D+2.6
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