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Currently 37% YES, down 3.8 pts over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 23/100).
Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
A non-toyota has only won once this year, but Hyundai may start to perform better due to there being no more asphalt rallies. Resolution criteria This market will resolve based on the manufacturer of the car driven by the overall winning crew of the 2026 WRC ueno Rally del Paraguay, scheduled to take place from August 27 to August 30, 2026. YES: The overall winning car is a Hyundai or a Ford (including those entered by M-Sport Ford WRT or any other private entrants running a Hyundai or Ford vehicle). NO: The overall winning car is from any other manufacturer (e.g., Toyota), or the rally is officially cancelled or postponed past December 31, 2026, with no winner declared. Resolution will be determined using the official final classifications published on the WRC official website or eWRC-results. Background The ueno Rally del Paraguay made its debut on the World Rally Championship calendar in 2025, with Toyota's Sébastien Ogier claiming the inaugural victory. The 2026 running of the event serves as Round 11 of the 2026 WRC season and features highly demanding red-gravel stages situated in the Itapúa region near Encarnación. Hyundai Shell Mobis WRT and M-Sport Ford WRT are the primary factory teams looking to challenge Toyota's dominance on the South American gravel. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by compound question.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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