Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 14.5% (up from 13.5% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ150 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1.1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The Putnam, per its website (https://maa.org/putnam/), is the preeminent mathematics competition for undergraduate college students in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This market resolves N/A if, to the best of my understanding, no community college has signed up for the Putnam.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The Putnam, per its website (https://maa.org/putnam/), is the preeminent mathematics competition for undergraduate college students in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This market resolves N/A if, to the best of my understanding, no community college has signed up for the Putnam. Else it resolves YES iff a community college places top 5 according to the announcements. Barring an unexpected change of policy, team rankings are determined only by the sum of a school's top three scores. As far as I know no community college has placed in the top 5 at any past Putnam. Perhaps history will be made soon. Warning for the uninitiated: the world of contest math is very small and a school's rankings are not necessarily indicative of the strength of its math department. For instance, MIT dominates the contest while Princeton, at least in recent years, does not do very well. It would be hard to argue that MIT's math department is vastly superior to Princeton's. School rankings often switch wildly as a few strong contest math students move here and there.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesApril 15, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ150
Liquidity
Ṁ1.1K
Total volume
Ṁ14.5K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 14.5%
- 7-day range
- 13.5% – 14.5%
- Resolves
- Apr 15, 2027