Market prices a 52.4% chance of “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]”
No meaningful 24-hour repricing, though the price is still shifting on shorter windows.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (0 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 30, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 5:51 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ181.8
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ181.8
- Category
- Geopolitics