Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
75 mana
Total volume
1.4K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30th 2027? [Polymarket]
As of Oct 14, 2026, 3:21 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 36.1% (down from 38.8% 24 hours earlier). It had 75 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
36.1%
−2.7 percentage points
over 24 hours38.8% → 36.1%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
24%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
16
Trades
134
over 50 days
Largest order
200 mana
1.4K mana traded across these 134 trades (last 50 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$1.4K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and the end of April 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and the end of April 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files. Polymarket: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [link preview]
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesApril 29, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 14, 3:30 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
Extending the deadline from Mar 30 to Apr 29 adds about 13.9 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next731 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~32h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.824H-2.77D-2.7
Related markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]
17%YESTrust 35
Manifold400 mana 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by February 28th 2027? [Polymarket]
19%YESTrust 36
Manifold312.4 mana 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by March 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
22%YESTrust 41
Manifold154 mana 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
40%YESTrust 36
Manifold75 mana 24h
Will commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?
4%YESTrust 29
Manifold100 mana 24h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
45%YESTrust 71
Polymarket$109.1K 24h