Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1.1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
100 mana
Total volume
3.8K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
As of Oct 12, 2026, 4:22 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 21.2% (down from 22.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 100 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1.1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
21.2%
−1.7 percentage points
over 24 hours22.9% → 21.2%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1.7 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
16%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
24
Trades
52
over 106 days
Largest order
500 mana
3.9K mana traded across these 52 trades (last 106 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$3.9K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. Even upon the signing of such agreement, if there is the exchanging of the bombing, attacks, blockades, assassinations, drone striking, jibs and the jabs, etc. within a 45-day period, it is considered NOT A FUCKING PERMANENT PEACE DEAL. It should be very easy to be understanding how this could be resolving.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 4:28 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
24Low
Where the price path tends to go next1235 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~31h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
100 mana
Liquidity
1.1K mana
Total volume
3.8K mana
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 21.2%
- 7-day range
- 21.2% – 22.9%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.724H-1.77D-1.7
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