Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
83.4 mana
Total volume
83.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Donald Tusk remain Prime Minister of Poland until February 1 2028?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 11:38 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 34.9% (down from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 83.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
34.9%
−15.1 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% → 34.9%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (15.1 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
1
Trades
4
over 1 min
Largest order
50 mana
83.4 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 1 min).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$83.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 15.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 34.9%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 31, 2028 at 6:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 11:45 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 15.1 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next1149 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
83.4 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
83.4 mana
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 34.9%
- 7-day range
- 34.9% – 50.0%
- Resolves
- Jan 31, 2028
Change (pts)1H0.06H-15.124H-15.17D-15.1
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