ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDevelopingUpdated 2h ago

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

As of Oct 16, 2026, 1:31 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 79.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 45.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
79.4%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 16, 1:31 AM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

45.4 mana

Total volume

94.2 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
79%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

3

Trades

32

over 70 days

Largest order

10 mana

94.2 mana traded across these 32 trades (last 70 days).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$94.2 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Ascension 0 Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs Savescumming does not count The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state. The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Ascension 0 Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs Savescumming does not count The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state. The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Act 4 / the Heart boss is added to STS2, defeating it will be required for a valid run The creator's general guidance for their standard of "reliable" is: the LLM should have a >75% chance of achieving a win within ~2-3 hours of runtime The creator may add additional criteria to prevent cheap model brute-forcing of the 3-win streak Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 3-win streak must be randomly seeded (no duplicated seeds allowed). Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what constitutes a solver (which is not allowed): A solver is a dedicated program that directly assigns an evaluation of a deck/game state Scripts are allowed, but should generally be restricted to context injection / formatting the game state into a richer representation The LLM agent must be the primary source of active inference when making decisions (e.g. which card to choose), rather than delegating decisions to a dedicated engine via tool calls Update 2026-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Prompt engineering restrictions: The initial prompt must not contain explicit instructions on what actions to perform (e.g. "aim for a poison build" is disallowed) The initial prompt should focus on providing context about the harness and broad advice on reasoning through the game and learning from mistakes Any additional messages after the initial prompt must be hands-off, such as: "continue playing" or "reflect on why you lost and try again" Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions. Any first-person language refers to that market's creator, not this market's creator.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 3:16 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next431 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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