ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?39%▲17.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?84%▲5.8US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?38%▲9.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?17%▼4.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?86%▲24.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?75%▼9.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?67%▲10.9Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?75%▲26.5Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?65%▲11.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?46%▼1.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?60%▲8.5Will my this market post cross 5Ok Mana mark? (THIS ONE)99%▲86.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?34%▼11.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?16%▲2.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?59%▼17.4Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?85%▲7.0
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?39%▲17.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?84%▲5.8US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?38%▲9.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?17%▼4.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?86%▲24.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?75%▼9.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?67%▲10.9Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?75%▲26.5Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?65%▲11.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?46%▼1.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?60%▲8.5Will my this market post cross 5Ok Mana mark? (THIS ONE)99%▲86.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?34%▼11.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?16%▲2.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?59%▼17.4Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?85%▲7.0
Home/AI / Tech/Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?
ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 1m ago

Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?

Market probability
46.6%
Little changed over 24 hours
141 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$2 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

OpenAI is reportedly not sure between calling it GPT-6 and GPT-5.7 To be clear, "GPT-6 Astra" as a name would meet the YES requirement (Identical market to: source market)

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

OpenAI is reportedly not sure between calling it GPT-6 and GPT-5.7 To be clear, "GPT-6 Astra" as a name would meet the YES requirement (Identical market to: source market)

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 12, 6:40 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ2

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ2

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D+1.1
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

16/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement2

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity31

Related markets

Will Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026?

22%YESTrust 7
ManifoldṀ60 24h

Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027?

41%YESTrust 3
ManifoldṀ13.3 24h

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%YESTrust 67
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Price has not updated recently (stale)
  • Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
22Low
Where the price path tends to go next436 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Open interest
—
Current probability
46.6%
7-day range
45.5% – 46.6%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

16/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+29
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Thin liquidity-20
Trust score16 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket$21.3K 24h

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

4%YESTrust 89
Polymarket$79.7K 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

48%YESTrust 88
Polymarket$230K 24h

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

5%YESTrust 67
Polymarket$21.6K 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]