Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
50 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the S&P 500 close 2027 higher than it closed on November 3, 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 6:59 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 71.4% (up from 70.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
71.4%
+1.4 percentage points
over 24 hours70.0% → 71.4%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with only a few recent trades.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Too few trades
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
1
Trades
1
Largest order
50 mana
50 mana traded across these 1 trades.
Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.
Recent trade activity$50 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party). If Democrats or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index's official closing level on its last trading day of 2027 is higher than its official closing level on November 3, 2026 (Election Day). Resolves NO if it is equal or lower. Uses S&P Dow Jones Indices' published closes. This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the House. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the House changes. Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 4:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 7:10 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
21Low
Where the price path tends to go next761 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~43h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+1.47D+1.4
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