Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
300 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
If James Talarico wins, Will Gina Hinojosa win?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 35.4% (down from 38.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
35.4%
−3 percentage points
over 24 hours38.4% → 35.4%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
50%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
3
Trades
4
over 4 days
Largest order
150 mana
300 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 4 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$300 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES If James Talarico wins the Texas senate election, and Gina Hinojosa wins the Texas Governor election Resolves NO if James Talarico wins the Texas senate election. And Gina Hinojosa loses the Texas governor election, Resolves n/a if James Talarico loses (everyone gets their mana back)
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES If James Talarico wins the Texas senate election, and Gina Hinojosa wins the Texas Governor election Resolves NO if James Talarico wins the Texas senate election. And Gina Hinojosa loses the Texas governor election, Resolves n/a if James Talarico loses (everyone gets their mana back)
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (38.4% → 35.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 12:17 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next641 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~20h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-3.07D-3.0
Related markets
Will Roy Cooper win by 4 points or more?
71%YESTrust 44
Manifold52 mana 24h
Will Roy Cooper win Transylvania?
37%YESTrust 46
Manifold849.7 mana 24h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
62%YESTrust 70
Polymarket$38K 24h
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
37%YESTrust 61
Polymarket$36.7K 24h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
91%YESTrust 70
Polymarket$47.7K 24h
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
64%YESTrust 69
Polymarket$16.7K 24h