As of Nov 1, 2026, 8:28 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 3.8% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 100 mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market — though most recent trading came from one account.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
449.1 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
11
Trades
17
over 44 days
Largest order
300 mana
445.5 mana traded across these 17 trades (last 44 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Must be an official endorsement, retweeting or sharing posts promoting Talarico or criticising Paxton don’t count. Saying he will vote for Talarico will count.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Must be an official endorsement, retweeting or sharing posts promoting Talarico or criticising Paxton don’t count. Saying he will vote for Talarico will count. Resolves no on poll close at election day. Saying voters can make their own mind up doesn’t count. Saying I’m not voting for Paxton doesn’t count. Saying I’m voting for Talarico in public would count.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 1, 9:29 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.