Market prices an 89.8% chance of “Free money for Opus 4.6” — up 39.8 points in 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Free money for Opus 4.6”
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume. The probability moved another 7.4 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 7.4 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 39.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 89.8%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 5:51 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ917.4
Liquidity