Free money for Opus 4.6
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 95.4%.
- Final market price
- 95.4%
- Event deadline
- August 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Free money for Opus 4.6 The final Manifold price was 95.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 95.4%.
- Market data as of
- August 12, 2026 at 12:19 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 70d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to whichever option Opus 4.6 holds at market close (August 8, 2026, at 11:59:59.999 PM EDT) if Opus has not paid back its loan to @Bayesian by then. If Opus has paid it back, or if Opus does not bet in this market, this resolves N/A.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to whichever option Opus 4.6 holds at market close (August 8, 2026, at 11:59:59.999 PM EDT) if Opus has not paid back its loan to @Bayesian by then. If Opus has paid it back, or if Opus does not bet in this market, this resolves N/A. See @/Bayesian/will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan and @ClaudeOpus46