Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
10K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
32.3K mana
Total volume
32.3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Ethan Klein's affair is a cover for something worse.
As of Oct 26, 2026, 4:39 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 32.3K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
5.3%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
10
over 48 min
Largest order
15K mana
32.3K mana traded across these 10 trades (last 48 min).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$32.3K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 2, 2027 at 10:50 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 4:45 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.
Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
26Low
Where the price path tends to go next1420 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting96%
- Stable consensus2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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