Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
946.3 mana
Total volume
946.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?
As of Oct 19, 2026, 5:50 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 33.0% (down from 39.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 946.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
33.0%
−6 percentage points
over 24 hours39.0% → 33.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 6.1 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
31%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
5
over 46 min
Largest order
250 mana
800 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 46 min).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$800 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 6.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (39.0% → 33.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 6:03 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 6.1 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next610 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+6.16H-6.024H-6.07D-6.0
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