Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
500 mana
Total volume
23.6K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
El-Sayed comdemn or disavow Hasan Piker before midterms?
As of Oct 25, 2026, 3:23 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 13.5% (down from 19.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 500 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
13.5%
−6 percentage points
over 24 hours19.5% → 13.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
82%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
25
Trades
87
over 80 days
Largest order
10K mana
23.9K mana traded across these 87 trades (last 80 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$23.9K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before the polls close in Michigan for the U.S. midterm general election (8:00 PM EST on November 3, 2026), Dr.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before the polls close in Michigan for the U.S. midterm general election (8:00 PM EST on November 3, 2026), Dr. Abdul El-Sayed or his official campaign issues an explicit public statement that condemns, disavows, or formally distances his campaign from Twitch streamer Hasan Piker. For a YES resolution, the statement must meet the following criteria: Must be before the polls close in Michigan for the U.S. midterm general election (8:00 PM EST on November 3, 2026) Must be published by a credible news organization, via an official campaign press release, or through El-Sayed’s official verified social media channels. Must feature El-Sayed (or his campaign) explicitly condemning, or disavowing Piker, or explicitly stating regret or an apology for holding joint campaign events with him.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 6.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (19.5% → 13.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 2, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 25, 3:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 6.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 25 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
20Low
Where the price path tends to go next528 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~19h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-6.024H-6.07D-6.0
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