Do you like 94% odds?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 9:30 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 93.7% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ51 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ10K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100. If the number is between 1 and 94 (inclusive), this market resolves to YES; otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will also record betting behavior for this and related markets with varying odds and analyze the data statistically to look for patterns in participants’ decisions.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 16, 2026 at 2:10 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 9:41 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting93%
- Stable consensus3%
- Thin-liquidity spike2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ51
Liquidity
Ṁ10K
Total volume
Ṁ67.7
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 93.7%
- 7-day range
- 93.7% – 94.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 16, 2026