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Currently 1% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 0/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 1 AM EDT is above 2594.99 at 1 AM EDT on Aug 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
MISSING_DATALimited dataLOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketSTALE_PRICEStale pricePAST_EXPIRYPast deadlineInsufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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