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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?33%▼7.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?66%▲7.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?24%▼11.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?32%▼11.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?77%▲9.5Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?40%▼4.0Fed rate hike in 2026?55%▼5.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12?24%▼40.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?84%▲3.6Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?75%▲6.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?28%▼17.0Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?74%▲25.7US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?9%▼9.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?77%▲2.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?57%▼19.9Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?18%▼4.0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?33%▼7.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?66%▲7.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?24%▼11.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?32%▼11.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?77%▲9.5Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?40%▼4.0Fed rate hike in 2026?55%▼5.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12?24%▼40.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?84%▲3.6Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?75%▲6.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?28%▼17.0Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?74%▲25.7US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?9%▼9.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?77%▲2.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?57%▼19.9Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?18%▼4.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-13

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $154.1K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 13?PolymarketCrypto2%-2.3 pts$85.8K7716Likely noise
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 13?PolymarketCrypto1%0.0 pts$68.3K7645Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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