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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?42%▲6.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?69%▲25.5US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?25%▼33.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?57%▼5.0Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?79%▲13.5Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?38%▲12.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?34%▼14.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?26%▲5.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?45%▼18.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?68%▼12.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?37%▲12.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?19%▼8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?10%▼8.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?47%▼9.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?16%▼5.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?28%▲8.0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?42%▲6.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?69%▲25.5US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?25%▼33.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?57%▼5.0Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?79%▲13.5Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?38%▲12.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?34%▼14.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?26%▲5.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?45%▼18.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?68%▼12.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?37%▲12.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?19%▼8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?10%▼8.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?47%▼9.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?16%▼5.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?28%▲8.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-11

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

3 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $123.6K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?PolymarketCrypto100%-0.1 pts$68K7845Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?PolymarketCrypto3%-0.3 pts$55.6K7862Developing
Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $78.50 on August 11, 2026?ManifoldMacro / Fed90%+30.7 ptsṀ2K634Likely noise

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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