ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?45%▼13.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?85%▲15.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?14%▼20.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?48%▼9.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?47%▲10.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?66%▼15.5Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?35%▼6.5US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?38%▼23.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?18%▼6.0Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?44%▼2.0Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?3%▼7.9Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?49%▲14.8"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)82%▼3.8Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?4%▼3.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?1%▼9.6Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?62%▲2.0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?45%▼13.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?85%▲15.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?14%▼20.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?48%▼9.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?47%▲10.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?66%▼15.5Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?35%▼6.5US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?38%▼23.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?18%▼6.0Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?44%▼2.0Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?3%▼7.9Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?49%▲14.8"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)82%▼3.8Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?4%▼3.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?1%▼9.6Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?62%▲2.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-10

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $129.1K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 10?PolymarketCrypto99%-0.3 pts$87.8K7844Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 10?PolymarketCrypto0%0.0 pts$41.3K7645Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]