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Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?64%▼22.5 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?35%▼11.0 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?87%▲19.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?80%▼14.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?98%▲24.1 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?3%▼10.0 Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?23%▲8.6 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?95%▲0.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲7.0 Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?61%▲17.9 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼6.0 Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 on the last trading day of August 2026?94%▲44.0 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 4am EDT?81%▲18.5 Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?3%▼46.7 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 4am EDT?7%▼12.5 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?10%▲1.0

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?64%▼22.5 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?35%▼11.0 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?87%▲19.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?80%▼14.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?98%▲24.1 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?3%▼10.0 Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?23%▲8.6 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?95%▲0.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲7.0 Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?61%▲17.9 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼6.0 Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 on the last trading day of August 2026?94%▲44.0 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 4am EDT?81%▲18.5 Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?3%▼46.7 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 4am EDT?7%▼12.5 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?10%▲1.0

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Hot Markets

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?64%▼22.5 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?35%▼11.0 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?87%▲19.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?80%▼14.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?98%▲24.1 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?3%▼10.0 Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?23%▲8.6 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?95%▲0.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲7.0 Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?61%▲17.9 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼6.0 Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 on the last trading day of August 2026?94%▲44.0 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 4am EDT?81%▲18.5 Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?3%▼46.7 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 4am EDT?7%▼12.5 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?10%▲1.0

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?64%▼22.5 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?35%▼11.0 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?87%▲19.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?80%▼14.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?98%▲24.1 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?3%▼10.0 Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?23%▲8.6 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?95%▲0.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲7.0 Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?61%▲17.9 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼6.0 Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 on the last trading day of August 2026?94%▲44.0 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 4am EDT?81%▲18.5 Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?3%▼46.7 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 4am EDT?7%▼12.5 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?10%▲1.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-01

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $290.7K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?	Polymarket	Crypto	3%	-10.0 pts	$153.9K	81	47	Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?	Polymarket	Crypto	98%	+24.1 pts	$136.8K	80	31	Likely noise

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.