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Event · resolves around 2026-08-07
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%? | Manifold | 41% | -5.3 pts | 5 | Likely noise |
| Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? | Manifold | 4% | +0.9 pts | 33 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.