Event · resolves around 2028-12-31
Natalie Harp — election · Dec 2028
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Natalie Harp births President Donald J. Trump's child by EOY 2028? | Manifold | 6% | -20.5 pts | 0 | Likely noise |
| Will Jim Justice run for Governor of West Virginia in 2028? | Manifold | 45% | -4.8 pts | 1 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.