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US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?0%▼88.3US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?0%▼98.4US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?0%▼77.4US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?0%▼69.2Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?15%▲6.3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲7.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?84%▼5.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?48%▼7.0Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?40%▼12.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?6%▲3.4Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?8%▼30.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?4%▼7.2US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?19%▼4.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?51%▲6.0Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14%▲1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?13%▼4.0
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?0%▼88.3US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?0%▼98.4US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?0%▼77.4US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?0%▼69.2Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?15%▲6.3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲7.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?84%▼5.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?48%▼7.0Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?40%▼12.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?6%▲3.4Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?8%▼30.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?4%▼7.2US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?19%▼4.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?51%▲6.0Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14%▲1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?13%▼4.0

Event · resolves around 2026-09-13

Sweden Democrats — election · Sep 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the Sweden Democrats beat their 2022 vote share (20.54%) in the September 2026 Riksdag election?ManifoldGeopolitics34%+11.6 ptsṀ23.9370Likely noise
🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?ManifoldGeopolitics55%+4.8 ptsṀ10390Likely noise

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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