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Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?12%▼19.0Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?0%▼11.5Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?67%▲8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?30%▼8.0Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?79%▲31.6Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?46%▼4.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?33%▼8.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?33%▲13.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?61%▼4.0Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?54%▲16.4Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?47%▼20.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?6%▼8.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?72%▲13.8Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?27%▼16.5US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?26%▼6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?3%▼5.5
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?12%▼19.0Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?0%▼11.5Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?67%▲8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?30%▼8.0Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?79%▲31.6Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?46%▼4.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?33%▼8.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?33%▲13.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?61%▼4.0Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?54%▲16.4Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?47%▼20.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?6%▼8.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?72%▲13.8Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?27%▼16.5US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?26%▼6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?3%▼5.5

Event · resolves around 2026-09-11

Darline Graham — election · Sep 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?ManifoldPolitics33%-4.8 ptsṀ8705624Developing
Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?ManifoldPolitics34%-2.0 ptsṀ5.83919Developing

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