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Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?35%▲24.3Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 16?0%▼1.4G20 countries merge?34%▼16.2Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 50.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?40%▼10.2Will YES have more holders than NO?57%▲8.3Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?76%▲50.5Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?35%▼14.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?18%▼1.0Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 6am EDT?42%▼11.5Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 6am EDT?61%▲16.0Rubio officially becomes viceroy of Venezuela before 203019%▼30.6Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?95%▲2.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 16?100%▲1.4Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5%▼2.0Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?3%▼17.3Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?12%▼25.7
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?35%▲24.3Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 16?0%▼1.4G20 countries merge?34%▼16.2Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 50.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?40%▼10.2Will YES have more holders than NO?57%▲8.3Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?76%▲50.5Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?35%▼14.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?18%▼1.0Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 6am EDT?42%▼11.5Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 6am EDT?61%▲16.0Rubio officially becomes viceroy of Venezuela before 203019%▼30.6Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?95%▲2.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 16?100%▲1.4Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5%▼2.0Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?3%▼17.3Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?12%▼25.7

Event · resolves around 2026-08-18

Debbie Wasserman Schultz — election · Aug 2026

3 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 60.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?ManifoldPolitics25%-1.1 ptsṀ664.95927Developing
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 50.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?ManifoldPolitics40%-10.2 ptsṀ582590Likely noise
Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?ManifoldPolitics35%-14.6 ptsṀ481.3570Likely noise

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

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